Photo : AFP
03 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #503
War in Ukraine Day, 433:
Zelenskyy demands for more air defence for the upcoming counteroffensive
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 02 May, after the attacks on its military production and munitions, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for boosting its air defence. He said: “We are working with our partners as actively as possible to make the protection of our skies even more reliable.” Highlighting the previous counter of 15 Russian missile out of 18, he stated how Ukraine was unable to bring down all.
On 02 May, Ukraine’s spokesperson Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Russia had changed its war tactics by particularly targeting the residential areas. He said: “There's no doubt that they are conducting direct attacks on civil residential houses or locations with many houses belonging to the civilian population.” According to Podolyak, Russia had initially targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and now its shifting to test Ukraine’s air defence capability.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 02 May, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported how Russia has been successful in inflicting heavy damages to Ukraine in the frontline. Despite such blows, the weapon supply and steps towards arms production in the war is considered critical for Russia. He said: “The country's leadership has set defense enterprises the task of increasing the pace and volume of production in a short time.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 02 May, Denmark’s intelligence service predicted that Russia was likely to use its civilians, journalist and business personnel in spying. Following the observation from Danish Security and Intelligence Service, Russia had amplified its efforts in “intelligence gathering.” This led to the expelling of Russian diplomats in 2022 by Denmark.
On 02 May, in its intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on shortage of ammunition for Russia that may not help it to counter Ukraine’s offensive. According to the report, Russia still prioritises strengthening its defence industry. Despite the efforts it seems to lag in meeting the “wartime demands.”
On 02 May, Deutsche Welle reported on the discussion held between NATO members on Ukraine and Georgia’s membership. In the closed meeting, the US, Germany along with other members are reported to have assured Ukraine’s membership as necessary without giving a specific time.
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav
ITALY
Government faces backlash from the opposition and unions over new labour decree
On 01 May, labour unions and the opposition criticized the government for introducing a new labor decree that increases tax cuts. The opposition claims that this move will exacerbate job insecurity. The government’s decision to debate the new decree has further angered unions who claimed they did not have enough time to propose any changes. Meloni defended the new decree, highlighting the effect of the tax cuts on labour, which will result in an increase of EUR 100 per month on average from July to December, with those earning up to EUR 25,000 benefiting from a seven per cent reduction and those earning up to EUR 35,000 benefiting from a six percent reduction. The government also plans to introduce the inclusion allowance for households with minors, disabled, or elderly individuals above 60, up to EUR 500 per month for 18 months. The opposition and labor unions have promised to protest against the new decree, calling for the introduction of a minimum wage and to end risky jobs. (Federica Pascale, “Italy’s new labor decree promises less taxes but more precarity,” Euractiv, 02 May 2023)
THE UK
Over a million NHS staff in England to receive five per cent pay rise
On 03 May, BBC News reported that over one million NHS staff in England will receive a five per cent pay increase and a one-time payment of at least GBP 1,655, after 14 health unions agreed to the deal proposed by the government in March. The agreement covers all NHS staff except doctors and dentists. The offer was accepted by a majority of unions, including Unison and the GMB, but the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) rejected the deal and has threatened further strike action. The British Medical Association (BMA) also met with the Health Secretary to discuss junior doctors' pay, but the two sides have not reached an agreement. (Nick Triggle, “NHS pay deal signed off for one million staff,” BBC News, 03 May 2023)
REGIONAL
Bulgarian government investigated for failure to implement EU sanctions against Russia
On 28 April, according to a statement released by the Bulgarian Prosecutor's Office, Bulgaria's implementation of EU sanctions against Russia is being investigated. Bulgaria has reportedly failed to impose sanctions against Russian citizens and firms included on the EU sanctions list. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the EU has imposed sanctions on nearly 1,400 Russian citizens and over 170 companies, as well as freezing over EUR 300 billion from Russian banks and EUR 20 billion of assets owned by Russian oligarchs. However, Bulgaria's National Revenue Agency has not issued any act imposing sanctions for eight years. The European Commission has requested that EU countries report their actions to implement sanctions against Russia, which it hopes will enable the identification of assets that could be confiscated and used to rebuild Ukraine. (Krassen Nikolov, “Bulgarian government investigated over Russia sanctions implementation,” Euractiv, 01 May 2023)
Eurostat predicts gradual population decline in the EU from 2026
On 02 May, Les Echos reported on Eurostat’s prediction of a gradual decline in the population of the EU from 2026, particularly in Southern and Eastern countries like Italy, Portugal, Hungary, and Romania. Eurostat data shows that the EU population will reach its peak of 453.2 million in 2026, before a slow decrease to 447.9 million by 2050 due to an aging population and a decline in the working population. While Ireland and Sweden are expected to see population growth, Germany will have a slight increase, southern and eastern European countries will experience a decline in their population. Italy will have a decline from 59 million inhabitants to 57.5 million by 2050 due to its high proportion of people over 65. The European demographic dynamics differ from the global trend, with Africa's population expected to almost triple in the 21st century. Demographer Laurent Toulemon warns of the sharp decline in the share of the European population in the world population. (Marine Bourrier, “5 figures to understand the demographic decline in Europe,” Les Echos, 02 May 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Public support for climate action in Europe
On 02 May, according to The Guardian, a recent YouGov survey was conducted in the UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, and Italy to find people’s opinion on climate action. The survey found that between 60 to 80 per cent were in support of climate action at individual and at government policy level. The majority of respondents were worried about climate change and agreed that it is caused by human activity. Surprisingly, they were restrained from taking subsequent measures that affect their daily lifestyle. The survey found that measures that do not require significant lifestyle changes, such as tree-planting programs and growing more plants, were more popular. There was also support for banning single-use plastics and limiting meat and dairy consumption. However, measures that would significantly impact daily life, such as giving up driving altogether, were less popular. People were opposed to an increase in fuel duty and a ban on petrol and diesel cars. (Jon Henley, “Many Europeans want climate action – but less so if it changes their lifestyle, shows poll,” The Guardian, 02 May 2023)
Baerbock calls for global renewable energy target
On 02 May, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged for a global renewable energy target as electricity demand grows. During the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, Baerbock said that countries must work together to tackle the climate crisis, calling it the "greatest security challenge of our century." Baerbock called for a global treaty on renewable energy, like the targets set by the G7 in April, to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels. The discussions also addressed financial support for countries affected by the climate crisis. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is possible but requires significant changes across all sectors. (“Germany's Baerbock urges global action on renewable energy,” Deutsche Welle, 02 may 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
ISIS leader killed in Syria
On 01 May, The Guardian reported on the announcement made by the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that Turkish intelligence forces have killed Abu Hussein al-Qurashi, the leader of the Islamic State, in Syria. The operation, which had been pursued for a long time, took place in the northern Syrian town of Jindires, controlled by Turkey-backed rebel groups, and was one of the worst-affected by the 6 February earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria. According to a spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces, “al-Qurashi was in a military position owned by the Ahrar al-Sharqiya militia supported by Turkish mercenary group, Ahrar al-Sharqiya”. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed primarily Kurdish fighting coalition in northern Syria, pointed to Turkish influence and control in Jinderes. After offensives by forces backed by the US in Syria and Iraq, and Syrian forces supported by Iran, the group's control over extensive regions in Iraq and Syria was weakened. Russia, and various paramilitaries. Its remaining militants have mostly hidden out in remote hinterlands of both countries, capable of carrying out major hit-and-run attacks. (Ruth Michaelson,“Turkish forces kill Islamic State chief in Syria raid, says Erdoğan,” The Guardian, 01 May 2023)
Poland to prioritize strengthening transatlantic ties with US During EU Presidency in 2025
On 01 May, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda announced that Poland aims to strengthen the EU's ties with the US during its presidency in the Council of the EU in 2025, with a focus on cooperation in security and the economy. While speaking on the 19th anniversary of Poland's membership in the EU, Duda said the country would focus on reinforcing collaboration with the US and strengthening transatlantic ties, including building a joint security system. President Duda also discussed EU enlargement, including membership for Ukraine and Moldova, and the accession process for western Balkan countries, in order to support the EU's open-door policy Poland joined the EU in 2004 and has held the Council of the EU presidency only once in 2011, since then. Among the priorities during that presidency were completing membership talks with Croatia and the association agreement with Ukraine. (Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, “Poland to reinforce transatlantic relations during next Council of EU presidency,” Euractiv, 02 May 2023)